NG Models' SHIFT AWAY from US Releases: 56% US Duplicates! (Part 2)

[CM Aviation]

What a shift from NG Models (Part 2)! What are our thoughts? Disclaimer: This video features additional clarity to the original installment, making it clear what we're working to get across here. This video is an analysis of factual information. I have no hard feelings towards NG Models and want to see them succeed. That said, this shift away from US Releases is noteworthy and justifies a video in my opinion.

 

[L1011TriStar]

BRO Thank you for this video. Do you think that when NG messaged you to blame the tariff situation for this development, that it was a cop-out? It doesn’t make sense in light of their 1:200 releases. Unless the prices have gone up on those and those collectors are less price sensitive or something.

 

[CM Aviation]

BRO Thank you for this video. Do you think that when NG messaged you to blame the tariff situation for this development, that it was a cop-out? It doesn’t make sense in light of their 1:200 releases. Unless the prices have gone up on those and those collectors are less price sensitive or something.

I messaged them first. Agree on 1:200's! Who knows...

 

[L1011TriStar]

I messaged them first. Agree on 1:200's! Who knows...

Sorry BRO that’s what I meant; their reply to you.

 

[YesterAirlines]

What a shift from NG Models (Part 2)! What are our thoughts? Disclaimer: This video features additional clarity to the original installment, making it clear what we're working to get across here. This video is an analysis of factual information. I have no hard feelings towards NG Models and want to see them succeed. That said, this shift away from US Releases is noteworthy and justifies a video in my opinion.

I appreciate you've tried to cover every aspect of this, but I still think you've missed the big one on this video. You are still talking about a shift or change but NG has always made a lot of what you call duplicates not just for the USA. So has there been a shift or change in relation to the USA specifically or is this the same for all geographical areas?

Once again I get the feeling this isn't about the US at all (there isn't a shift) it is just the way NG release models nowadays (and has been for a long time actually).

Also I feel you can't have your cake and eat it. On the one hand there have been complaints that make too many models and then on the other you're complaining they aren't making enough. You need to look at the 'duplicates' as though they are part of one model release run, not separate models. It is obviously cheaper to make 4 Air France 777s, as they did in November, then 4 completely different 777s.

In relation to tariffs - 200 and 400 scale are clearly different both in terms of how production works at NG and who is buying them. Therefore the impact of tariffs isn't the same and NG's response isn't the same. I think it is likely there will be a lot less 200s for the US in the future too, but perhaps their 200 scale production hasn't been running the same as their 400 in terms of when models are ready?

Oh and the big elephant in the room as always I bet NG are still making more unique releases than there biggest competitor in the US market - who still make a sh*t ton of duplicates themselves year on year.

 

[YesterAirlines]

You got me thinking about this and so I decided to just put all my thoughts on the topic into a video of my own showing why I don't agree with your conclusions and why I think if there is a shift away from the US then it is down to tariffs and nothing else:

 

[DTcustoms]

Another reason NG is releasing less is because of the spread of consumption with respect to topic. For example, a US regional airline (Jetblue, Southwest...) vs Cathay Pacific or Korean Air are all good sell. But the spread are vastly different, the sales of major airlines are more evenly distributed across the regions, whereas those US topics are more focused on North American market. And NG or any other manufacturers cannot risk doing the same pattern and betting that the tariff won't affect the consumption.
- Also I disagree with the opinion the US dominating a quarter of the market, that is completely wrong. Other major communities such as Chinese, Malaysian, Thai, Japanese, Indonesian, Indian...are ignored just because their social media coverage and presence are not popular, even though manufacturers have made a large number of exclusive models for those regions. The forums are "a sample" and cannot represent the entire population

 

[JJ Skippy]

I watched Connor’s video and saw he had a two-minute segment at the end of the video explaining how these issues don’t affect just US collectors, but others around the world too. Did you happen to watch the whole thing and acknowledge that part by chance?

 

[YesterAirlines]

I watched Connor’s video and saw he had a two-minute segment at the end of the video explaining how these issues don’t affect just US collectors, but others around the world too. Did you happen to watch the whole thing and acknowledge that part by chance?

I watched it but it didn't cover the issue properly in relation to the points he'd made previously and the whole video is still about the impact on the US as though something has changed when the numbers don't show there has been a change aside from due to tariffs, which he still downplays the impact of.

 

[L1011TriStar]

BROS I think both of you are making a similar kind of observation really. Whether you think the decline started in July or September of 2024 is splitting hairs really. And the tariff situation is probably an element of it, but doesn’t explain the 200 scale situation or really other manufacturers continuing to offer stuff with the USA, and it doesn’t explain really why European or other parts of the world are also neglected that aren’t suffering from the same tariffs. The price of 200 scale models also has not increased by 30% in the USA, so the price sensitivity argument doesn’t really hold. I think with NG’s newer owners there is just a general strategy shift towards a more domestic focus. I think what ruffles the feathers of non-Americans watching Connor’s video is how obviously favored the USA has been historically in NG’s production compared to Europe and the rest of the world, so it just seems rather entitled or tone deaf. The other thing is that NG makes lots of duplicates for their historically core focus - USA and China - and fewer duplicates for places they don’t focus on so much.

 

[YesterAirlines]

BROS I think both of you are making a similar kind of observation really. Whether you think the decline started in July or September of 2024 is splitting hairs really.

The decline only started in 2025 and is directly related to tariffs so we're telling completely different stories.

And the tariff situation is probably an element of it, but doesn’t explain the 200 scale situation or really other manufacturers continuing to offer stuff with the USA, and it doesn’t explain really why European or other parts of the world are also neglected that aren’t suffering from the same tariffs.

Nobody else but Gemini is offering US material much and they have no choice with that for several reasons. I talk about 200 scale in the vid and the tariffs do explain the lack of 'rest of world' models as I also explain in the vid.

The price of 200 scale models also has not increased by 30% in the USA, so the price sensitivity argument doesn’t really hold.

Nothing has increased by 30%, yet, but even the 5-10% price rises are enough for sensitive buyers and the brands plan ahead by months and months anyway.

I think with NG’s newer owners there is just a general strategy shift towards a more domestic focus.

That may be true but it has had no impact on US releases really - if anything it has impacted Europe and other Asian models not US ones.

I think what ruffles the feathers of non-Americans watching Connor’s video is how obviously favored the USA has been historically in NG’s production compared to Europe and the rest of the world, so it just seems rather entitled or tone deaf.

What ruffles my feathers is that what he's saying isn't accurate.

The other thing is that NG makes lots of duplicates for their historically core focus - USA and China - and fewer duplicates for places they don’t focus on so much.

They make a lot of duplicates for everywhere as the stats show, but it's harder to make more duplicates when you make less models for a region.

 

[L1011TriStar]

The decline only started in 2025 and is directly related to tariffs so we're telling completely different stories.

Nobody else but Gemini is offering US material much and they have no choice with that for several reasons. I talk about 200 scale in the vid and the tariffs do explain the lack of 'rest of world' models as I also explain in the vid.

Nothing has increased by 30%, yet, but even the 5-10% price rises are enough for sensitive buyers and the brands plan ahead by months and months anyway.

That may be true but it has had no impact on US releases really - if anything it has impacted Europe and other Asian models not US ones.

What ruffles my feathers is that what he's saying isn't accurate.

They make a lot of duplicates for everywhere as the stats show, but it's harder to make more duplicates when you make less models for a region.

In your own video you say in 2024 because of the election of Donald Trump and “uncertainty” about tariffs.

 

[L1011TriStar]

I think tariffs play a role in justifying their current business decisions, but I think there was a change even before this tariff environment was realized, and I don’t find all of yesterairline’s speculations on the matter or the differences with 200 scale to be that compelling to be honest. I don’t think Connor was being disingenuous or cherry-picking data. He looked at the time period when it is first noticeable there was a decline in US output. And it does predate tariff concerns by quite a fair amount of time.

 

[swagninja84]

I don’t think Connor was being disingenuous or cherry-picking data.

He absolutely is.

The argument was 40% to 20% US releases. But to get to 40% he used all of North America releases then rounded up by 5%. When reality, US releases were never above 25% of all releases.

 

[YesterAirlines]

I think tariffs play a role in justifying their current business decisions, but I think there was a change even before this tariff environment was realized,

You may think it but the evidence doesn't really support it. Numbers are what matter

and I don’t find all of yesterairline’s speculations on the matter or the differences with 200 scale to be that compelling to be honest.

Neither do I fully but I wouldn't use the 200 scale releases to explain the 400 scale ones either

I don’t think Connor was being disingenuous or cherry-picking data. He looked at the time period when it is first noticeable there was a decline in US output.

No he doesn't

And it does predate tariff concerns by quite a fair amount of time.

No they don't. There were 36 US releases from July-December out of 164. That is 22% - nearly the same as it always was over the years NG have existed

 

[CM Aviation]

Richard, you made some points that I greatly appreciate and some that I think are skewed since you didn't mention my segment about not only the rest of the world, but also my thoughts on covering this subject from a global perspective. That said, I have a reaction to your video to bring additional clarity to the subject. I hope you will consider my perspective and that we can bring more light on the subject. Would love to collab with you to make a video on the global NG downfalls, the European downfalls, etc. if you'd like!

 

[pons399]

Other major communities such as Chinese, Malaysian, Thai, Japanese, Indonesian, Indian...are ignored just because their social media coverage and presence are not popular, even though manufacturers have made a large number of exclusive models for those regions. The forums are "a sample" and cannot represent the entire population

This, I roll my eyes whenever N. Americans and Europeans whine about how nobody wants [insert release from another region]. Over-representation in English-speaking forums doesn’t mean y’all drive the lion’s share of demand. Nor does it justify brands bending over backwards for you (which was the case up until recently), at the expense of others.

 

[MIAv8Diecast]

I have heard some people say things like "Tariffs couldn't have played a role so far in advance of the U.S. election because there was no certainty they would have happened at all". Tariffs had been in discussion for the better part of year prior to them being implemented by the current administration... Any business conducting international commerce would have been foolish not to recognize and plan for what is a TAX on U.S. businesses. I can assure you business working in this space certainly were planning for price increases well in advance for this possibility to protect their margins. I think it's naive to assert that businesses don't plan far in advance (1 Year) for what could be "possible". Plan for the worst, hope for the best as they say. Secondly, NG Models is more Chinese than most other manufacturers in the scale as they are Chinese owned, produced and sold in the domestic market. JC (Chinese) / Gemini (American) partner, Aerolcassics (American Owned), Pheonix is the exception. NG technically doesn't have to do business with the western market at all especially if trade relations are increasingly hostile. It's super annoying that this is how it has to be, and I wish it wasn't, but this is the result of action (policy) and consequences of policy. As an American (Which I am) you can't have your cake and eat it to.

 

[JJ Skippy]

I have heard some people say things like "Tariffs couldn't have played a role so far in advance of the U.S. election because there was no certainty they would have happened at all". Tariffs had been in discussion for the better part of year prior to them being implemented by the current administration... Any business conducting international commerce would have been foolish not to recognize and plan for what is a TAX on U.S. businesses. I can assure you business working in this space certainly were planning for price increases well in advance for this possibility to protect their margins. I think it's naive to assert that businesses don't plan far in advance (1 Year) for what could be "possible". Plan for the worst, hope for the best as they say. Secondly, NG Models is more Chinese than most other manufacturers in the scale as they are Chinese owned, produced and sold in the domestic market. JC (Chinese) / Gemini (American) partner, Aerolcassics (American Owned), Pheonix is the exception. NG technically doesn't have to do business with the western market at all especially if trade relations are increasingly hostile. It's super annoying that this is how it has to be, and I wish it wasn't, but this is the result of action (policy) and consequences of policy. As an American (Which I am) you can't have your cake and eat it to.

I can understand your points, but my question is does NG have access to any western media besides their Instagram? They don’t have a Facebook anymore, their Twitter is probably dead in the water, and they have no official YouTube channel of their own. Do they happen to use a VPN (which I believe is illegal in the country) to access news outlets from western countries to see what’s going on? Because if they don’t have that information, then there’s no way for them to know what’s happening next.

 

[swagninja84]

Do they happen to use a VPN (which I believe is illegal in the country) to access news outlets from western countries to see what’s going on? Because if they don’t have that information, then there’s no way for them to know what’s happening next.

Why would it need to access Western media?
Or do you think that Asian and Chinese media wouldn't also report on tariffs? After all it does affect them.

It's China not the 1800s, their news outlets would report tariffs that affect their country.
It would also be possible to access news on the internet.

Your western bias is showing.