NG Models' SHIFT AWAY from US Releases: 40% US to 20% US from 2020 to 2025!

[LachieHare]

Oh man, the entitlement of Yank collectors is another level.

Looking at your numbers, last year you Yanks had 6 times more models than us in Oceania, this year already 7 times more models and then in 2022, it was 10 times the models and that's just from NG. Imagine how spoilt you'd look if we included the GJ numbers

 

[Mikeymag]

Lol!

 

[jkim1123]

Hey Connor (@CM Aviation) and JJ (@JJ Skippy). So normally I prefer not to be involved in these debates as I have to focus on my research work and there's a lot of intense arguments, but there's a few thoughts I have in mind after reading through this discussion (this is from someone living in the US btw):

• So it is true that the percentage of NA models has decreased from 2024 to 2025 according to this image attached earlier. However, NA still has pretty good representation, where it is currently the third-largest represented region this year. Furthermore, since it is only mid-way through 2025, it is too early to draw conclusions since there are several more releases coming up before 2026.
• Also, I really appreciate the high levels of passion that you guys have for the hobby, and you have major preferences for NA models. But I think it's important to consider that aviation is on a global scale, and diecast models are no exception. I agree with others that NG should expand their international offerings especially for Europe, Africa, and Oceania. Collectors from those parts of the globe would kill to obtain models made with NG's stellar moulds, and while this might mean a possible decrease in NA releases, I think it will be a great thing in terms of international diversity. And there's always the future to come in case not enough happens this year!

Just wanted to drop by and give my two cents here. I understand everyone's points in this thread, and overall they're valid claims. Hopefully you guys and anyone else aren't too offended by what I have to say. I've noticed a lot of heated back-and-forth throughout this thread, and I just want to remind everyone that in the end, model collecting is all for fun and shouldn't get in the way of friendships. I love being a new active member in the aviation community through various platforms such as here and IG, mostly because everyone that I've interacted with is super friendly and welcoming. Would definitely feel devastated if this amazing community crumbles into pieces for any reason. So, let's do our best to get along, shall we?

 

[YesterAirlines]

The way I see it is that Connor could have just made a video titled 'I don't like what NG has been making' or something similar and he'd have had a solid video I and others wouldn't have an issue with. I mean everyone has been frustrated with NG's releases to varying degrees. Instead he's found some stats that are accurate then made some claims the stats don't really support. I still don't see a SHIFT that is statistically meaningful away from the US before 2025. By the end of this thread it's devolved into going through each release to say whether it is good or bad. Obviously, the comparative riches of US releases doesn't help the argument either.

All the stats above say pre-2025 is that NG:

• Have been making more Asian models year on year
• Have been making more US models year on year too
• They are making more Asian models than US (which has basically always been the case)
• The ratio of China : other Asian releases has gone up over time

If anything I think it is European collectors who have more of a legitimate complaint in 2024.

Now from 2025 the situation has clearly changed but even in January there were 9 US models. When discussing 2025 tariffs are clearly important - not to mention them once seems bizarre even if they will get a mention in a subsequent video.

 

[Alphaless]

I was thinking about this a little bit and I would like to bring it up for the sake of discussion.

I think that there is a fine line here between criticizing NG for their lack of US releases and criticizing NG for having a poor selection of US releases. I am beating a dead horse with the American MD-80s, but I think it is a great example for what I am trying to get at here. Any airplane, no matter how coveted, will eventually become stale.

The numbers don't lie, NG still does a large amount of US airplanes. I just think this fact becomes implicitly lost in the eyes of collectors because the make-up of these numbers is not diverse.

I do not intend to speak for other collectors when I say this, but I presume that a Lufthansa A320 or a Qantas 737 could become stale if NG produced them at the same rate they did these American airplanes.

I err on the side of criticizing NG's release contents. I am grateful that they produce so many US airplanes despite the current circumstances, but I do not think I am in the wrong when I wish for them to diversify their more recent production.

Also noteworthy, GJ somehow escapes release expectations despite being the quintessential US company. Many US collectors are upset with the lack of Avelo and Frontier airplanes, for example, but why are we upset with NG? It would be much more appropriate for GJ to produce these airplanes.

 

[Sithan400]

Not true, watch the video; I mention every continent in the world!

The title of your vídeo suggests otherwise, inspite of your mention of every other continent in the final 60 seconds.

 

[YesterAirlines]

I was thinking about this a little bit and I would like to bring it up for the sake of discussion.

I think that there is a fine line here between criticizing NG for their lack of US releases and criticizing NG for having a poor selection of US releases. I am beating a dead horse with the American MD-80s, but I think it is a great example for what I am trying to get at here. Any airplane, no matter how coveted, will eventually become stale.

The numbers don't lie, NG still does a large amount of US airplanes. I just think this fact becomes implicitly lost in the eyes of collectors because the make-up of these numbers is not diverse.

I do not intend to speak for other collectors when I say this, but I presume that a Lufthansa A320 or a Qantas 737 could become stale if NG produced them at the same rate they did these American airplanes.

I err on the side of criticizing NG's release contents. I am grateful that they produce so many US airplanes despite the current circumstances, but I do not think I am in the wrong when I wish for them to diversify their more recent production.

Also noteworthy, GJ somehow escapes release expectations despite being the quintessential US company. Many US collectors are upset with the lack of Avelo and Frontier airplanes, for example, but why are we upset with NG? It would be much more appropriate for GJ to produce these airplanes.

You're 100% right. In fact just the other week we were hearing how Chinese collectors were making the same criticisms of NG that this video is.

 

[Francois]

Just spare a thought for us staying in Africa....

 

[Boeing_3019]

Just spare a thought for us staying in Africa....

EygptAir and South African Airways being forgotten…

 

[Jazajia]

The way I see it is that Connor could have just made a video titled 'I don't like what NG has been making' or something similar and he'd have had a solid video I and others wouldn't have an issue with. I mean everyone has been frustrated with NG's releases to varying degrees. Instead he's found some stats that are accurate then made some claims the stats don't really support. I still don't see a SHIFT that is statistically meaningful away from the US before 2025. By the end of this thread it's devolved into going through each release to say whether it is good or bad. Obviously, the comparative riches of US releases doesn't help the argument either.

All the stats above say pre-2025 is that NG:

• Have been making more Asian models year on year
• Have been making more US models year on year too
• They are making more Asian models than US (which has basically always been the case)
• The ratio of China : other Asian releases has gone up over time

If anything I think it is European collectors who have more of a legitimate complaint in 2024.

Now from 2025 the situation has clearly changed but even in January there were 9 US models. When discussing 2025 tariffs are clearly important - not to mention them once seems bizarre even if they will get a mention in a subsequent video.

Spot on, almost.

I think you are exaggerating the effect of the tariffs on release choices. It is too soon to assess their impact on the demand for U.S. models. I wouldn't fault Connor for not mentioning them, as it was a personal video, and clearly, tariffs have not affected how he buys models.

 

[Jazajia]

Oh man, the entitlement of Yank collectors is another level.

Looking at your numbers, last year you Yanks had 6 times more models than us in Oceania, this year already 7 times more models and then in 2022, it was 10 times the models and that's just from NG. Imagine how spoilt you'd look if we included the GJ numbers

That's probably because there are about 8 times more airliners in the U.S. than in Oceania, and about 7 times more people. So, I'd say the ratio of Aussie to Yank releases is about what one could reasonably expect. Yet, plenty of unsatisfied collectors in both places, shocker.

 

[YesterAirlines]

Spot on, almost.

I think you are exaggerating the effect of the tariffs on release choices. It is too soon to assess their impact on the demand for U.S. models. I wouldn't fault Connor for not mentioning them, as it was a personal video, and clearly, tariffs have not affected how he buys models.

While I agree it is too early to assess their impact on demand the video is about release choices not sales, which I believe have been impacted by the tariffs. Demand is less important than the real issue, which is the pricing model is now broken. Nobody can sustain the 30% increase for any period of time. At present ADI and others are trying to suck it up and limit the price increases as much as possible. That doesn't appear to be sustainable.

You have to look at the model dev lead times too. I know from first hand experience that the first thing that happenned when the tariff war started was that the brakes were put on by manufacturers and distributors alike. They suddenly recognised that they can no longer get the models into the US and make enough of a profit anymore. Plus the situation changed daily so they couldn't plan. In that situation you just stop.

I just put together a timeline and there is a correlation between the tariff announcement and NG's release sets going from 42 to 25 to 11 in size from Jan-March, although CNY may also play a part in this. I suspect the missing models were North American releases that were deferred or cancelled. When the release set size gets back to near normal size (at the height of the tariff row) all of a sudden Asian models make up the majority of the total. That is a shift and one that ties very neatly to the tariff announcements. The last two NG sets have also been a lot smaller than the same time in 2024. NG appear to be in survival mode and that means US (and actually most Western models) are mostly off the table or at least being spread across the months more.

I may well do a video myself on this. It is an interesting topic, however in this case I think the stats do tell a story and show a shift. It is one tied largely to the macro-economics.

 

[Jazajia]

While I agree it is too early to assess their impact on demand the video is about release choices not sales, which I believe have been impacted by the tariffs. Demand is less important than the real issue, which is the pricing model is now broken. Nobody can sustain the 30% increase for any period of time. At present ADI and others are trying to suck it up and limit the price increases as much as possible. That doesn't appear to be sustainable.

You have to look at the model dev lead times too. I know from first hand experience that the first thing that happenned when the tariff war started was that the brakes were put on by manufacturers and distributors alike. They suddenly recognised that they can no longer get the models into the US and make enough of a profit anymore. Plus the situation changed daily so they couldn't plan. In that situation you just stop.

I just put together a timeline and there is a correlation between the tariff announcement and NG's release sets going from 42 to 25 to 11 in size from Jan-March, although CNY may also play a part in this. I suspect the missing models were North American releases that were deferred or cancelled. When the release set size gets back to near normal size (at the height of the tariff row) all of a sudden Asian models make up the majority of the total. That is a shift and one that ties very neatly to the tariff announcements. The last two NG sets have also been a lot smaller than the same time in 2024. NG appear to be in survival mode and that means US (and actually most Western models) are mostly off the table or at least being spread across the months more.

I may well do a video myself on this. It is an interesting topic, however in this case I think the stats do tell a story and show a shift. It is one tied largely to the macro-economics.

I agree, but how many release announcements from NG have there been since the start of the trade war? Two or three? That's why I say the topic of tariffs has little impact on Connor's video. Seems like the video would be applicable even if there wasn't a trade war going on.

Probably Connor's video title, combined with bad timing, makes one believe that tariffs should be part of it. But I think the question of how the trade war is re-shaping macro-economics, and how it affects our hobby, is a different discussion.

 

[ghqv2988]

I agree, but how many release announcements from NG have there been since the start of the trade war? Two or three? That's why I say the topic of tariffs has little impact on Connor's video. Seems like the video would be applicable even if there wasn't a trade war going on.

Probably Connor's video title, combined with bad timing, makes one believe that tariffs should be part of it. But I think the question of how the trade war is re-shaping macro-economics, and how it affects our hobby, is a different discussion.

Well said.

 

[YesterAirlines]

I agree, but how many release announcements from NG have there been since the start of the trade war? Two or three? That's why I say the topic of tariffs has little impact on Connor's video. Seems like the video would be applicable even if there wasn't a trade war going on.

Probably Connor's video title, combined with bad timing, makes one believe that tariffs should be part of it. But I think the question of how the trade war is re-shaping macro-economics, and how it affects our hobby, is a different discussion.

The trade war started on February 1st (when the US put an initial 10% tariff on. By March 3rd it was 30%) so there have been 5 NG announcements since it began. So aside from January every release has been impacted. Do pay attention

The stats don't illustrate any shift prior to that other than what I said in the bullet points above.

 

[pommy80]

EygptAir and South African Airways being forgotten…

Phoenix have released a few of these lately. They seem to be the only one who are a true ‘worldwide’ model company…

 

[L1011TriStar]

BROS! The thing about NG's release schedule every month isn't that we are suffering under some kind of punitive regime of continental division. I think most aviation geeks like airplanes from everywhere. I think there is a violation of expectations that is making people upset:

1) There is a program where people wish on future models, but it is totally opaque and poorly managed with most of the approved models existing in some kind of approval purgatory.

2) The specific choices NG makes for which models they choose don't seem to follow any rhyme or reason, so it makes people anxious because they have no idea what to expect. Some of the choices are so bizarre, so off-the-wall, or so needlessly repetitive while very obvious, very popular choices languish. If NG came out with a mould for an A300 they might do Wigan Kebab Leasing Co interim hybrid livery day 1 and Air France year 3.

3) A lot of the early NG moulds were for older aircraft, which maybe gave people an impression that they would mostly see historical airliners. But increasingly it is obvious that NG is very successful and has a huge fan base for contemporary aircraft, so these have predominated.

These are the kinds of things I think about with NG. I don't really think about the US being underserved or something. To the extent that they are this year, it's probably due to tariffs and a decision to focus more on their core market.

 

[acaymeth47]

Has anyone here ever considered that we are a bunch of dorks who like little metal airplanes and it’s really not that deep

 

[YesterAirlines]

Has anyone here ever considered that we are a bunch of dorks who like little metal airplanes and it’s really not that deep

I probably prefer nerd but dork is one of the nicer things I've been called! They are 'little toy planes' but the 400 scale market does see around 100 releases a month, which equates to about 25-30,000 models being made per month, so as small as it is in the grand scheme of die-cast models there is serious money being spent and made too. It's a serious business, which is why there are so many machinations and so much aggressive behaviour between brands.

 

[CM Aviation]

I agree, but how many release announcements from NG have there been since the start of the trade war? Two or three? That's why I say the topic of tariffs has little impact on Connor's video. Seems like the video would be applicable even if there wasn't a trade war going on.

Probably Connor's video title, combined with bad timing, makes one believe that tariffs should be part of it. But I think the question of how the trade war is re-shaping macro-economics, and how it affects our hobby, is a different discussion.

Thank you!