NG Models' SHIFT AWAY from US Releases: 40% US to 20% US from 2020 to 2025!

[CM Aviation]

What a shift from NG Models! What are our thoughts? Disclaimer: This video is an analysis of factual information. I have no hard feelings towards NG Models and want to see them succeed. That said, this shift away from US Releases is noteworthy and justifies a video in my opinion.

 

[YesterAirlines]

What a shift from NG Models! What are our thoughts? Disclaimer: This video is an analysis of factual information. I have no hard feelings towards NG Models and want to see them succeed. That said, this shift away from US Releases is noteworthy and justifies a video in my opinion.

I just skipped through your video I admit but I didn't hear you mention the word tariff once - did I miss it?

You understand tariffs are currently 30% right, and your administration has chopped and changed the rules constantly. Why would anyone invest in the US market at the moment given that? If I were a 400 scale company I wouldn't be making any US models at the moment except ones I could sell abroad.

I mean if this continues at the current rate Gemini will be most likely in serious financial trouble within the year. They are taking a massive hit on the recent releases even though they have increased their pricing. I really don't understand how you can be so blind to the macro-economic situation?

Arguably for the years prior to 2025 the US has been over-represented in NG's release sets.

 

[CM Aviation]

I just skipped through your video I admit but I didn't hear you mention the word tariff once - did I miss it?

You understand tariffs are currently 30% right, and your administration has chopped and changed the rules constantly. Why would anyone invest in the US market at the moment given that? If I were a 400 scale company I wouldn't be making any US models at the moment except ones I could sell abroad.

I mean if this continues at the current rate Gemini will be most likely in serious financial trouble within the year. They are taking a massive hit on the recent releases even though they have increased their pricing. I really don't understand how you can be so blind to the macro-economic situation?

Arguably for the years prior to 2025 the US has been over-represented in NG's release sets.

Why don’t you watch the video first to see the purpose of it before spending time on this message? The videos main focus doesn’t even regard the tariff situation. This has been going on for over a year now.

 

[JJ Skippy]

Tariffs might be the true answer if this had been a short-term situation, like with the first half of 2025, but the data shows a very clear long-term shift that’s only exacerbated by the ongoing tariff deal. I would argue that this shift would’ve happened anyway even without the tariffs. That’s why it’s important to watch a video in full before providing any thoughts because you can easily miss something, whether a minute detail or a key concept.

 

[YesterAirlines]

Why don’t you watch the video first to see the purpose of it before spending time on this message? The videos main focus doesn’t even regard the tariff situation. This has been going on for over a year now.

Tariffs might be the true answer if this had been a short-term situation, like with the first half of 2025, but the data shows a very clear long-term shift that’s only exacerbated by the ongoing tariff deal. I would argue that this shift would’ve happened anyway even without the tariffs. That’s why it’s important to watch a video in full before providing any thoughts because you can easily miss something, whether a minute detail or a key concept.

I had watched the video - just not listened to every word. This is your image from the video:



Yes NG have been making more Chinese and Asian models but in 2023 and 2024 they also made substantially more US models too. In fact they had made more US models than they ever had. Your stats don't back up a complaint that the US isn't being fairly represented or that they are 'shifting away from US model releases'. It just tells you they are making more Asian models.

The only statistically important part of these stats from a US perspective is that 2025 has seen a major dip in US releases and that is almost certainly to do with tariffs - which you completely fail to mention.

So really the central point of your video doesn't make a lot of sense (other than you think the US is entitled to more models than Asia - even though the population of Asia is well over 4 billion and the population of the US is 340 million which means there are a lot more Asian collectors than American ones) and the 2025 stats that matter are due to a reason you don't even mention!

I didn't miss anything. I just think that both you and @JJ Skippy aren't very good at analysis

 

[YesterAirlines]

Here are your stats in graph form:



Aside from the earliest years when they had only a few moulds NG have always made more Asian models than US. If I included HYJLwings production with their own (as they used to make their models) then the number of Asian releases would be much higher in the 2018-2022 period.

So from these stats all you're saying is Asia is more important than North America, which is hardly a surprise given the fact they are a Chinese company and the Asian market is massive and on their doorstep.

Arguably the change you see in the graph here is just them using the vacant HYJL factory capacity, replacing it with their own Asian models rather than HYJLs.

I don't see a 'shift away from the US' in these stats if you ignore 2025.

 

[LeoMuse747]

This will be a fun thread

"Where are the American models?"
"Has NG turned away from the marked that helped launch their success?"

These two questions right at the beginning of the video are quite laughable. I assume that, if a collector really thinks that, I guess he lives in a bubble and he thinks NG should only release US models and nothing else.

Well, if NG is indeed reducing their US releases, then that's great. They need more diversity and exploring other countries would be something very welcome, in my opinion.

 

[Gazontipede]

Agree. This seems to be an example of entitlement culture at its most egregious.
US releases across all manufacturers still likely outnumber the rest of the planet put together.
Spare a thought for non US collectors?

 

[pons399]

Heh, I can only dream of being so well-served that four monthly releases within my criteria is a downgrade. Folks from other regions would kill to get four in a year, let alone in a single month. Yeah it’s less than before, but that “less” still being a hefty FOUR just proves how imbalanced NG’s previous sets were.

For the record I’d love to see the Bs get nuked as well. But we all know there’s no reason for NG to do that…

 

[swagninja84]

The videos main focus doesn’t even regard the tariff situation.

Your analysis leaves out a massive factor of imports into the the US? Weird
Which year had US releases being 40% of releases?

I would argue that this shift would’ve happened anyway even without the tariffs.

Numbers don't really agree. Yes There was a dip in 2023 and this year, but short from the first year, and the 2 previously mentioned it has been consistantly 20%-24% of overall releases.

	US	Total
2018	22	78	0.282051
2019	35	157	0.22293
2020	37	153	0.24183
2021	29	132	0.219697
2022	51	225	0.226667
2023	55	354	0.155367
2024	64	315	0.203175
2025	19	120	0.158333

As a US collector, imagine getting 51, 55 and 64 models the past 3 years and then being salty that there are not enough US models.

 

[MIAv8Diecast]

Undoubtedly the Tarrifs are playing a huge role in the release choices by a Chinese manufacturers. Even before the Tariffs went into play the geopolitical writing has been on the wall for a better part of a decade with tensions rising between the U.S. and China hence why so much U.S. manufacturing has shifted to Thailand and Vietnam. I haven’t had a chance to watch the video yet but I don’t know how you could make an analysis of this without considering the wider macro geopolitical arena that has been taking shape since the 2010’s. Could you imagine a U.S. based company making primarily Chinese related products in the domestic market? There would be an uproar here in the U.S.. As an American, I wouldn’t blame NG for making more domestic release choices. If Gemini were wise, they would look for manufacturing capacity elsewhere outside of China to save themselves.

 

[Alphaless]

I think it also helps to consider that the aircraft they debuted with are predominately western. The L-1011, for example, was not hugely successful in Asia. Consequently these releases would be western.

I also would like to bring up that they are, currently at least, releasing a lot of duplicate models that are very similar. The American MD-80s come to mind. A large number of duplicate models do not do a huge amount for diversity points, and in my opinion weaken substantially the offering from NG. That being said I am not against rereleases, they just have to be spaced out so it's not like we see the same thing every other month.

NG's 2024 numbers are still quite large for North American models. They are just dwarfed by the scale of the B-ees.

 

[LachieHare]

Oh no, another 1/400 thread where the Americans are sooking that they are hard done by and think they are the only collectors in the world that matter, shocker.

 

[keji833]

I just skipped through your video I admit but I didn't hear you mention the word tariff once - did I miss it?

You understand tariffs are currently 30% right, and your administration has chopped and changed the rules constantly. Why would anyone invest in the US market at the moment given that? If I were a 400 scale company I wouldn't be making any US models at the moment except ones I could sell abroad.

I mean if this continues at the current rate Gemini will be most likely in serious financial trouble within the year. They are taking a massive hit on the recent releases even though they have increased their pricing. I really don't understand how you can be so blind to the macro-economic situation?

Arguably for the years prior to 2025 the US has been over-represented in NG's release sets.

dont want to get into politics but this is 100% right. The fact of the matter is NG could make exclusively Chinese airlines and still stay strong. Go take a look at the comments on NG's account on red note or wechat and you'd be surprised how many ppl constantly demands say Air China A333, which I'm sure has disgusted a lot on this forum. So apparently collectors on the other side of the earth couldn't care less if any US airlines are released. Now, given the tarrif situation and convoluted logitics surrounding this, would you still keep releasing US models if you were the owner of NG? I certainly would opt to stay out of the mess.

I think people here need to APPRECIATE how a foreign brand has catered US airlines so much already.

 

[planes_on_a_shelf]

I think people here need to APPRECIATE how a foreign brand has catered US airlines so much already.

THIS!

 

[LiveryCollector]

I also would like to bring up that they are, currently at least, releasing a lot of duplicate models that are very similar. The American MD-80s come to mind. A large number of duplicate models do not do a huge amount for diversity points, and in my opinion weaken substantially the offering from NG. That being said I am not against rereleases, they just have to be spaced out so it's not like we see the same thing every other month.

This exactly. Even though there looks to be less European models from 2024 onward in pure numbers, 45 is still not bad. But then you realise that of those 45 there is already 6 Lufthansa 747-8i and 6 Wizzair A321's. So 1/4th of all European releases in a year is just 2 carriers.