Are Tariffs Going to Kill 400 Scale?

[YesterAirlines]

'Liberation Day' has come and gone and the impact on 400 scale looks like it will be substantial. With tariffs on Chinese products increasing massively and the closing of the de minimus loophole this will surely get very painful for manufacturers, distributers, retailers and collectors. Sadly, probably not just in the US too. Here is my analysis and predictions:

Are Tariffs Going to Kill 400 Scale?

The news from the USA over the past few months has in general been unpleasant, but yesterday's 'liberation day' nonsense is definitely going to have a massive impact on die-cast. If you're not paying attention Trump just added a 34% extra tariff on top of

www.yesterdaysairlines.com

 

[KL808]

Very good article. Thanks for explaining especially the closure of the “loophole” on how it effects model price increase.

Will Gemini and AC survive?

 

[YesterAirlines]

Very good article. Thanks for explaining especially the closure of the “loophole” on how it effects model price increase.

To be 100% I'm not entirely certain how the loophole closure will impact it, but it doesn't sound good

Will Gemini and AC survive?

I guess it depends how much they can cut costs and spread the bill around? Then again maybe tomorrow or next week Trump will change his mind?

 

[777-300ER]

Now GJ and NG should regret having made Trump aircrafts and "Air Force One" nonsense future livery. This guy is the reason why these brands will get in troubles. He is killing America and the whole world with his nonsense tarifs and obsession with Canada, Greenland and Gulf of Mexico.

Don’t know why American people let this old kid lead such a beautiful country one more time while he should be in jail right now.

Well done american voters and justice!

 

[YesterAirlines]

Now GJ and NG should regret having made Trump aircrafts and "Air Force One" nonsense future livery. This guy is the reason why these brands will get in troubles. He is killing America and the whole world with his nonsense tarifs and obsession with Canada, Greenland and Gulf of Mexico

Somewhat ironically they sell really well to Trump voters who don't seem to mind buying them even though they are made in China

 

[JJ Skippy]

Honestly I’m not ready to panic about this yet. Once I see narrow bodies going for $60+ and widebodies $75+ then it is panic time. I think this is just a bargaining attempt, so there’s a chance this gets reversed down the line. Plus if you’re imposing high tariffs on not just China, but on so many countries, just imagine the impact this would have on other hobbies (diecast cars, scale trains, etc.) and so many other industries where we import things from overseas. I don’t see how we could sustain this long-term, but I’m not well-educated enough on this situation.

 

[YesterAirlines]

Honestly I’m not ready to panic about this yet. Once I see narrow bodies going for $60+ and widebodies $75+ then it is panic time. I think this is just a bargaining attempt, so there’s a chance this gets reversed down the line. Plus if you’re imposing high tariffs on not just China, but on so many countries, just imagine the impact this would have on other hobbies (diecast cars, scale trains, etc.) and so many other industries where we import things from overseas. I don’t see how we could sustain this long-term, but I’m not well-educated enough on this situation.

I hope you're right. The tone of the conversation I had with one of the biggest distributers of diecast vehicles and aircraft into the USA this morning was, shall we say, one of utter shock and confusion. But ultimately diecast models and toys is small fry.

It surely isn't sustainable, but it only needs to go on for 6 months to a year to do serious damage. Plus the one thing businesses hate is uncertainty. Makes it impossible to plan ahead. It takes 4-6 months to get a 400 scale release to market often.

 

[IndyJets]

What's the possibility of "Made in the USA" diecast, or more likely, 3D printed models? 3D Design Deck is doing a great job, but they're in Canada of course... so also subject to tariffs.

 

[vsr]

This may be inside baseball, but what are typical retail markups for models? I’d expect that the price increases we’d see as consumers would represent 54% of the wholesale price, rather than the MSRP, assuming all of the tariff costs were passed onto us.

As for the whole tariff policy, “burning down the house to cook a steak,” as one commentator put it, is an apt description.

 

[IndyJets]

Honestly I’m not ready to panic about this yet. Once I see narrow bodies going for $60+ and widebodies $75+ then it is panic time. I think this is just a bargaining attempt, so there’s a chance this gets reversed down the line. Plus if you’re imposing high tariffs on not just China, but on so many countries, just imagine the impact this would have on other hobbies (diecast cars, scale trains, etc.) and so many other industries where we import things from overseas. I don’t see how we could sustain this long-term, but I’m not well-educated enough on this situation.

Not a problem that a little American ingenuity (and perhaps some 3D printing) shouldn't be able to fix... we've been dependent on other nations for far too long and that's why our country is in the shape it's in. I actually am in favor of the tariffs and we as a hobby will adapt.

 

[jetliner10101]

I also read something about the "small package or duty-free cheap shipment" tariff exemption that's currently in effect on anything coming in from either China or HK, and will be ending starting May 2nd with a whopping 54%

So that means the 54% tariffs will be applied to anything from both places starting next month?

Here's an article from Reuters, but it doesn't say 54% though:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/trump-considering-revoking-tariff-exemptions-cheap-shipments-china-source-says-2025-04-02/

 

[vsr]

I also read something about the "small package or duty-free cheap shipment" tariff exemption that's currently in effect on anything coming in from either China or HK, and will be ending starting May 2nd with a whopping 54%

So that means the 54% tariffs will be applied to anything from both places starting next month?

Here's an article from Reuters, but it doesn't say 54% though:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/trump-considering-revoking-tariff-exemptions-cheap-shipments-china-source-says-2025-04-02/

At least according to the EO, the fee for small packages will be 30%, or $25 per item ($50 after Jun 1), I assume whichever is higher. This is ostensibly meant to target retailers like Shein and Temu who take advantage of the de minimis exception, but it’s going to sweep in a lot of other people as well.

 

[Bulgogi77]

One thing that I think gets overlooked is that even if these tariffs are lifted at some point, prices are unlikely to go down to their previous levels (or even decrease at all to begin with). Just an awful situation all around

 

[777-300ER]

One thing that I think gets overlooked is that even if these tariffs are lifted at some point, prices are unlikely to go down to their previous levels (or even decrease at all to begin with). Just an awful situation all around

Prices were never going to go down to their previous level. Currencies are losing their value since ever, that’s how inflation works

 

[IndyJets]

One thing that I think gets overlooked is that even if these tariffs are lifted at some point, prices are unlikely to go down to their previous levels (or even decrease at all to begin with). Just an awful situation all around

I think we could see a major switch from diecast to 3D printing. It can be done domestically, and relatively inexpensive to set up. We could even see a larger number of smaller players setting up shop. Could be good for the hobby, especially those like me who are into classics.

 

[Charter]

If 1:500 scale still survives after the crazy prices of latest years/months (increasing prices without a stop) i don't think 1:400 scale will be affected by taxes, custom fees and increasing prices. 1:400 scale world has many manufacturers and a good quality up to almost perfection (NGModels), some beautiful moulds, details well printed on the various moulds, even more collectors joining 1:400 scale collection and/or switching from 1:500 to 1:400 scale. I don't see a so dark future.

 

[vsr]

If 1:500 scale still survives after the crazy prices of latest years/months (increasing prices without a stop) i don't think 1:400 scale will be affected by taxes, custom fees and increasing prices. 1:400 scale world has many manufacturers and a good quality up to almost perfection (NGModels), some beautiful moulds, details well printed on the various moulds, even more collectors joining 1:400 scale collection and/or switching from 1:500 to 1:400 scale. I don't see a so dark future.

For my part, I won’t stop buying 1:400 models entirely, but I will definitely get much more choosy about what I do buy. I assume most people are the same way; they’ll pull back their spending without cutting it entirely. Whether the reduced spending is enough to sustain retailers, I can’t really say.

 

[vsr]

Prices were never going to go down to their previous level. Currencies are losing their value since ever, that’s how inflation works

Sure, but prices are supposed to go up gradually (if they do at all), along with wages, not as a sudden shock brought on by unforced policy errors.

 

[Phantom]

I think we could see a major switch from diecast to 3D printing. It can be done domestically, and relatively inexpensive to set up. We could even see a larger number of smaller players setting up shop. Could be good for the hobby, especially those like me who are into classics.

A bit off topic, but I don't see how 3D printing could be the solution.
The production costs per unit are either very high if you want comparable quality or you need to go several steps back in quality if you aim at comparable costs.
Classic tampo printing and assembly are very labor intense, hence you either do them in low-wage countries or make compromises in quality or price.
Or you invest in advanced technologies like "robotic" tampo printers to reduce labor. But you need planning certainty to justify such invest.

Back to 3D-printed models: while I really appreciate 3D Design Deck's efforts I think it quite well shows the problems: the vastly superior tampo printing is cost prohibitive and the cheapest possible tech needs to be used: direct UV-print which again is inferior to the more labor intense indirect print (decaling)
3D-printing has a niche in special mould products due to low to no invests in assets (moulds) but I don't see it in the mass market - not now.

A few words on tariffs...
When an industry isn't able to engineer and produce a competitive product you can either promote innovation or you impose tariffs which either boost prices or hinder innovation. Either way, tariffs are a loss for anyone.

 

[bakejobb_23]

mannnnn and I ~just~ got back into this hobby because it became “affordable” for me finally… I truly hope that orange man does more good than harm over these next 4 years for everyone’s sake. I really don’t want to be priced out of this hobby anymore